Crypto RGV — Cycle Blueprint

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Bitcoin's entire history runs on a four-year clock. Here it is on one chart — every halving, every bottom, every top — and what that rhythm suggests (and can't promise) about what comes next.

⏳ The whole story on one chart

Bitcoin's price (log scale) since 2010. Orange dashes = the four halvings. Green zones = the ~18 months after each halving, where every major bull run so far ignited. Markers show each cycle's bottom and top. Hover or tap to explore.

┆ halving ▲ cycle bottom ▼ cycle top ▮ post-halving window

⛏ What a halving is — in one look

The pay cut

Miners earn brand-new Bitcoin with every block they add to the chain. Every four years that paycheck is cut in half — it's written into Bitcoin's code and cannot be changed.

Half as many new coins for sale

🟠🟠🟠🟠🟠🟠 → 🟠🟠🟠

Miners sell coins to pay their bills. After a halving, half of that daily selling pressure disappears. Same buyers, fewer new coins — that squeeze has historically pushed prices up over the following months.

The rhythm, four times in a row

The same shape has played out after all four halvings: a quiet wait, then momentum roughly 6–12 months later, a peak about a year to 18 months after, then the long cool-down into the next cycle's bottom.

📜 The four halvings — and what price did next

#	Halving date	Block reward	Price that day	Cycle peak (within ~18 mo)	Gain to peak
1	Nov 28, 2012	50 → 25 BTC	~$12	~$1,130 · Nov 2013	≈ 94x
2	Jul 9, 2016	25 → 12.5 BTC	~$650	~$19,700 · Dec 2017	≈ 30x
3	May 11, 2020	12.5 → 6.25 BTC	~$8,600	~$69,000 · Nov 2021	≈ 8x
4	Apr 20, 2024	6.25 → 3.125 BTC	~$63,800	~$124,800 · Oct 2025	≈ 2x

📉 Notice the pattern inside the pattern: each cycle's multiple is smaller than the last — 94x → 30x → 8x → ~2x. Bitcoin is maturing: a bigger market simply takes more money to move. Anyone promising you "the next 100x on Bitcoin" is selling nostalgia, not analysis.

🔮 When is the next bottom? What simple math says

Bitcoin's four cycle bottoms so far are Nov 2011, Jan 2015, Dec 2018 and Nov 2022. Feed those dates into a handful of simple statistical rules and each one spits out a guess for the next bottom. None of them know the future — but it's honest to show what the clock alone would say:

Model (plain English)	How it thinks	Its guess

Most of the simple models land inside this window

…

measured from real bottom-to-bottom gaps and top-to-bottom lags — not from anyone's opinion

⚠️ Read this twice: these models only know four dates. Four data points can rhyme by pure luck. ETFs, regulation, wars, or a broken pattern could move the real bottom by months or years — or the four-year cycle could stop existing entirely. Use windows like this for patience (knowing roughly where you are in the cycle), never for all-in bets on a date.

✖️ What a bull market actually pays — the honest version

Community analyses of the ~700 biggest coins in each cycle (including the dead ones — the part most people never see) tell a story most influencers skip. The numbers below are approximate and illustrative, but the direction is unmistakable:

2015 → 2018 CYCLE

≈248x

what the typical surviving mid-list coin did at its own peak

2019 → 2021 CYCLE

≈4.7x

the typical coin's peak multiple — 50x smaller than the cycle before

2023 → 2025 CYCLE

≈2.4x

the typical coin — and many of the 700 never even doubled

Each bull market has paid harder-to-find, smaller wins. The lottery-ticket era mostly happened before 2018. Every cycle since, the typical coin's multiple has shrunk while the loudest stories stayed just as loud.
Most coins die or fade. In every cycle, a large share of the top-700 list either lost most of its value, got delisted, or simply never made a new high. The winners you hear about are the survivors — that's survivorship bias.
"Would I have beaten just buying Bitcoin?" In recent cycles, only a small minority of coins beat simply holding BTC to its own top. Chasing the 100x usually underperforms the boring choice.

🎓 This is exactly why our course hammers position sizing, taking profit on the way up, and DCA — the skills that work in a market where the average win keeps getting smaller. The Last Bull Run page shows the winners; this page shows the graveyard behind them. You need both.

🎓 Know the clock, learn the skills

Understanding where you are in the cycle is step one. Knowing what to do about it — sizing, exits, security — is what the free course teaches.

Start learning → 📊 Check today's Risk Model 📈 See the last bull run